Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting1-4
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chisholm Jr. homered to center (414 feet).2–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 8Berti singled to center, Segura scored, Wendle to second.1–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -106
- MIA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.8 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +8 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +18 Elo | BOS 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 21–2021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.