Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-2
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Berti singled to right, Wendle scored.3–4
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 10Gurriel hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored.3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Hayes singled to left, Palacios scored, McCutchen to second.3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Delay doubled to left, Gonzales scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Santana singled to left, McCutchen scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Arraez homered to right (370 feet), Berti scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 60%
- Fair odds
- MIA -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +4 | PIT: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Bryan Hoeing: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +68 Elo | MIA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 23–166th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.