Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting3-4
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marcano singled to center, Santana scored, Davis to third.3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Santana singled to center, McCutchen scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 9Joe grounded out to shortstop, Palacios scored.1–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Sánchez singled to right, Arraez scored, Soler to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 59%
- Fair odds
- MIA -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −1 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +61 Elo | MIA 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 23–156th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.