Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cooper homered to right center (413 feet), Soler scored and De La Cruz scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8De La Cruz singled to center, Arraez scored and Davis scored, Soler to second.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Hayes homered to left (370 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Davis homered to left center (407 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Santana stole third, scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes.2–1
- 4Santana scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes.2–1
- 4Santana doubled to center, Joe scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Wendle hit sacrifice fly to center, Cooper scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +39 Elo | MIA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 22–156th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.