Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Andrus singled to right, Remillard scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Turner singled to center, Duran scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Vaughn homered to left center (403 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Robert Jr. homered to left (380 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Casas homered to right center (391 feet), Devers scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Burger homered to left center (445 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Grandal homered to left center (373 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Arroyo hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 45%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- BOS +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −18 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +34 Elo | BOS 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 18–2023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.