Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting1-4
- Brandon WalterPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Lewis singled to center, Farmer scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Buxton homered to center (465 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Taylor doubled to left, Castro scored and Jeffers scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Buxton homered to left (466 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Correa homered to left (418 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Fair odds
- MIN -108
- BOS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | BOS: Justin Garza (no track record yet) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +10 Elo | MIN 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 22–1917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.