Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler HoltonPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lewis singled to center, Castro scored, Correa to second, Solano to third.6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Julien scored on Lange wild pitch, Castro to third on wild pitch by Lange.6–3
- 8Julien scored on Lange wild pitch, Castro to third on wild pitch by Lange.6–3
- 8Castro doubled to right, Jeffers scored, Julien to third.6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 5Cabrera hit sacrifice fly to center, Maton scored, Ibañez to third.6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Ibañez singled to left, Báez scored, Ibañez to second, Maton to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Carpenter homered to left center (403 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Torkelson homered to left center (419 feet), Marisnick scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Vázquez doubled to left, Farmer scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Báez tripled to right, Carpenter scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- DET +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | DET: Will Vest: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +39 Elo | MIN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 25th of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 21–1611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.