Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan DoddPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rosario homered to right center (362 feet).6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 15–5
- 4Rogers homered to left (360 feet), Schoop scored and Cabrera scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Vierling homered to left (421 feet).5–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Arcia singled to left, Rosario scored and Albies scored, Arcia to second.5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Ibañez homered to left (420 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to center (461 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Albies homered to right center (412 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Riley hit sacrifice fly to second, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -103
- DET +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | ATL: Dylan Dodd: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–11 | Road vs home | 15–1724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.