Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Miguel CabreraBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Haase singled to center, Ibañez scored, Cabrera to third.10–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 310–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking10–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 210–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–6
- 8McKinstry singled to right, Ibañez scored, Haase to third.10–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–6
- 8Harris II singled to right, Arcia scored.10–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 8Arcia singled to left, Rosario scored, Arcia to second, Albies thrown out at third.9–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 7Harris II homered to left center (360 feet).8–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 5Torkelson scored, Maton to second, Báez to third on wild pitch by Strider.7–5
- 5Torkelson scored on Strider wild pitch, Maton to second on wild pitch by Strider, Báez to third on wild pitch by Strider.7–5
- 4Acuña Jr. singled to right, Harris II scored.7–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 4Harris II doubled to right, Arcia scored and Pillar scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4Albies scored, Arcia safe at third, Pillar safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Maton.4–4
- 4Pitch 11 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -101
- DET +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 15–1624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.