Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Torkelson singled to center, Ibañez scored, Rogers to second.5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 9Short singled to left, Maton scored, Short safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Rosario, Vierling safe at third.5–5
- 9Short singled to left, Maton scored on error, Short safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Rosario, Vierling safe at third on error.5–5
- 9Short singled to left, Maton scored on error, Short safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Rosario, Vierling safe at third on error.5–5
- 9Short singled to left, Maton scored on error, Short safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Rosario, Vierling safe at third on error.5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 9Torkelson homered to left center (440 feet), Schoop scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 8Short singled to right, Báez scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 8Harris II homered to right center (359 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Ibañez homered to left center (403 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Acuña Jr. hit into fielder's choice to right, Albies scored, Harris II out at second.4–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Acuña Jr. doubled to left, Arcia scored and Harris II scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Ozuna scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Mason Englert (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–10 | Road vs home | 14–1624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.