Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting1-3
- Joey WentzPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Brent HeadrickPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Jeffers grounded into fielder's choice to third, Castro scored, Kirilloff out at second.0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Kirilloff singled to right, Lewis scored, Castro to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −15 | DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Jose De Leon (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +49 Elo | MIN 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 20–1612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–0 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.