Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler HoltonPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vierling homered to left (430 feet).7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 4Vierling homered to left center (428 feet).6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Báez homered to left (384 feet), Schoop scored and McKinstry scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to center, Haase scored, Schoop to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Schoop singled to left, Vierling scored, Haase to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Kirilloff homered to left center (382 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | DET: Will Vest: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +74 Elo | MIN 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 20–1510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.