Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Twins- Donovan SolanoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Short doubled to left, Torkelson scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 9Torkelson doubled to left, Rogers scored and Vierling scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Haase grounded out to second, Báez scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 5Báez tripled to center, Torkelson scored and Carpenter scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Cabrera grounded into double play, third to second to first, Báez scored, Ibañez out at second, Maton to third.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Solano homered to left center (399 feet), Jeffers scored and Castro scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Castro singled to right, Lewis scored, Jeffers to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Vierling singled to right, Ibañez scored, Cabrera to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -122
- DET +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −1 | DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +68 Elo | MIN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.421st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–21 | Road vs home | 20–148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.