Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Twins- Max KeplerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Farmer singled to center, Castro scored, Vázquez to third.4–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 8Casas doubled to center, D. Hamilton scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Kepler homered to right (365 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Turner singled to center, Verdugo scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Correa grounded out to third, Julien scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Turner homered to left (447 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Vázquez singled to center, Lewis scored, Vázquez to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Kepler singled to center, Buxton scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Devers doubled to center, Turner scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Fair odds
- MIN -105
- BOS +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −6 | BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 21–1920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–1 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.