Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Christian ArroyoBatting5-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kepler homered to right center (414 feet).10–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 9Lewis homered to center (424 feet).10–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 8Buxton homered to left center (415 feet), Julien scored.10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Yoshida homered to right center (447 feet), Turner scored.10–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
- 7Arroyo doubled to right, Casas scored, Devers scored and Yoshida scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Yoshida reached on infield single to pitcher, Turner scored, Devers to second.5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Turner doubled to right, Verdugo scored, Turner to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Wong singled to right, Yoshida scored, Arroyo to second.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Arroyo homered to left (391 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Duvall homered to center (426 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -110
- BOS +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +15 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +24 Elo | MIN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 21–1815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.