Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Verdugo reached on infield single to second, Reyes scored.9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Casas homered to right (419 feet), Arroyo scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Verdugo tripled to right, Casas scored, Wong scored and Refsnyder scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Vázquez homered to left center (412 feet), Castro scored and Farmer scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Duran doubled to right, Reyes scored and Wong scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Duvall walked, Reyes scored, Verdugo to second, Duran to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 41–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −11 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +7 Elo | MIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 21–1712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.