Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting3-4
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 4Devers homered to right (434 feet), Yoshida scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Anderson hit sacrifice fly to center, Zavala scored, Benintendi to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3D. Hamilton scored on pickoff error by second baseman Anderson.1–0
- 3D. Hamilton scored on pickoff error by second baseman Anderson.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Fair odds
- CHW -103
- BOS +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +14 Elo | BOS 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 18–1922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.