Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Robert Jr. homered to left (387 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Benintendi doubled to right, Sheets scored, Benintendi to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Robert Jr. homered to center (398 feet), Benintendi scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Duvall doubled to left, Turner scored, Devers to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 47%
- Fair odds
- CHW -103
- BOS +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −4 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Tanner Banks: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +19 Elo | BOS 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 19–2022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.