Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to center, Devers scored, Duvall to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 36–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 9Arraez grounded out to shortstop, Wendle scored, Fortes to third.6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to center (439 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–1
- 6Segura reached on infield single to shortstop, De La Cruz scored and Cooper scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Soler scored, Cooper to second, De La Cruz to third on wild pitch by Winckowski.2–1
- 6Soler scored on Winckowski wild pitch, Cooper to second on wild pitch by Winckowski, De La Cruz to third on wild pitch by Winckowski.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Devers homered to right center (422 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Cooper homered to center (404 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Fair odds
- BOS -106
- MIA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +3 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Kaleb Ort: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +16 Elo | BOS 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 21–1919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.