Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cooper doubled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 8Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Wendle scored and Arraez scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.9–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Arraez doubled to center, Stallings scored, Wendle to third.7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Segura homered to left center (389 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Chisholm Jr. singled to center, Arraez scored, Soler to third.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Soler doubled to left, Wendle scored, Arraez to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Verdugo doubled to left, Turner scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Cooper singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, Cooper to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1De La Cruz homered to right center (395 feet), Soler scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- MIA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +9 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +43 Elo | BOS 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 21–1817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.