New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jake BauersBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Knizner struck out swinging, Carlson scored on throwing error by catcher Higashioka.1–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Donovan homered to right center (406 feet), Edman scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Bauers doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Knizner singled to center, Burleson scored, Walker to second.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Walker singled to center, Arenado scored, Burleson to second.0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Fair odds
- NYY -101
- STL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 15–2427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.