New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torres singled to left, Trevino scored and Volpe scored, LeMahieu to second.6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Trevino sacrificed, Kiner-Falefa scored, Volpe to second.4–2
- 3Walker doubled to left, Nootbaar scored, Contreras to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2LeMahieu hit sacrifice fly to left, Volpe scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Volpe tripled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Nootbaar homered to center (421 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Bader hit sacrifice fly to right, LeMahieu scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Fair odds
- STL -101
- NYY +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.2 – 5.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | −3 | NYY: Starter not announced · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +15 Elo | NYY 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 15–2327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 0–1 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.