Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8d'Arnaud homered to right (384 feet), Olson scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Arraez singled to left, Davis scored, Fortes to second.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Albies homered to right (343 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Harris II scored on Alcántara wild pitch.2–2
- 5Harris II scored on Alcántara wild pitch.2–2
- 2Arcia homered to center (425 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Arraez doubled to right, Davis scored, Stallings to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Davis grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wendle scored, Segura out at second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Fair odds
- ATL -122
- MIA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +71 Elo | ATL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 10th of 3023–20 | Road vs home | 29–152nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–8 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.