Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-3
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olson homered to center (401 feet).0–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Harris II scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Olson doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -126
- MIN +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −10 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ATL: Kolby Allard (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +64 Elo | ATL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–2 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.