Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Levi StoudtPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8McLain doubled to center, Friedl scored and Newman scored.7–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 8Ozuna walked, Albies scored, Murphy to second, Riley to third.7–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 47–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 36–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7McLain homered to center (406 feet).6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Olson homered to left (378 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Riley scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4McLain doubled to right, Senzel scored and Stephenson scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Steer doubled to left, McLain scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Ozuna singled to left, Olson scored, Murphy to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Murphy singled to left, Riley scored, Olson to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Harris II scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Fair odds
- CIN -101
- ATL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.4 – 5.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Levi Stoudt: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +23 Elo | ATL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 1st of 3025–12 | Road vs home | 21–1921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 4–1 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.