Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Reds- Joey VottoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olson homered to center (424 feet).10–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–11
- 8Riley homered to center (458 feet).9–11
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–11
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 38–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–11
- 8Acuña Jr. homered to left (368 feet).8–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–11
- 6De La Cruz tripled to center, India scored.7–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–10
- 6India singled to center, Friedl scored.7–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–9
- 5Votto homered to right center (415 feet), India scored and De La Cruz scored.7–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 37–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 5De La Cruz singled to center, McLain scored, India to third.7–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 5Olson homered to left (359 feet), Riley scored.7–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 46%
- Fair odds
- CIN -101
- ATL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.0 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −9 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–11 | Road vs home | 20–1821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 3–0 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.