Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Reds- Joey VottoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Votto singled to center, De La Cruz scored and India scored, Steer to second.4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Moustakas walked, Díaz scored, Jones to second, Alfaro to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 44–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Alfaro doubled to left, McMahon scored, Díaz to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Díaz singled to right, Grichuk scored, McMahon to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Votto homered to right (381 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Díaz homered to left (428 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Senzel homered to left center (415 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Newman homered to left center (390 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 58%
- Fair odds
- CIN -122
- COL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 5.0 – 5.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +59 Elo | CIN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–26 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–1 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.