Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Olson homered to right center (456 feet).3–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to center, Murphy scored.3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Tovar singled to left, Doyle scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 4Acuña Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Arcia scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 4Tovar homered to center (424 feet).2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Albies doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Pillar scored and Arcia scored.1–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pillar doubled to left, Murphy scored and Olson scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Díaz homered to left (415 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -126
- COL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.8 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +59 Elo | ATL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–22 | Road vs home | 20–1510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.