Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies singled to center, Harris II scored, Acuña Jr. to second.6–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–13
- 7Olson doubled to right, d'Arnaud scored.6–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–12
- 7McMahon homered to center (418 feet).6–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–12
- 6Rosario homered to center (415 feet), Ozuna scored.5–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–10
- 5Harris II homered to right center (453 feet), Rosario scored and Arcia scored.5–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 4Albies homered to right center (408 feet), Harris II scored and Acuña Jr. scored.5–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 35–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 3Rosario singled to center, Olson scored.5–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 2Rosario homered to right center (420 feet), Olson scored and Ozuna scored.5–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 2Tovar grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Castro scored, Profar out at second, Doyle to third.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 2Doyle reached on infield single to shortstop, Grichuk scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Fair odds
- ATL -131
- COL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +81 Elo | ATL 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–25 | Road vs home | 23–157th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–3 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.