Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4
- Dinelson LametPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Grichuk grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Profar scored, Díaz out at second, Tovar to third.1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Acuña Jr. grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Arcia scored, Harris II out at second.0–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Rosario homered to right center (443 feet), Ozuna scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3d'Arnaud homered to left (433 feet), Riley scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1d'Arnaud homered to center (474 feet), Riley scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Riley walked, Acuña Jr. scored on Lamet wild pitch.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- COL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.8 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −2 | COL: Dinelson Lamet: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +82 Elo | ATL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–23 | Road vs home | 21–159th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.