Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mike MoustakasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching3.0 IP, 9 ER, 1 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castro doubled to right, Jones scored, Moustakas to third.2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–10
- 5Arcia singled to left, Ozuna scored, Rosario to second.1–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 5Moustakas homered to right center (389 feet).1–9
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 3Arcia homered to left center (417 feet).0–9
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–9
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–8
- 3Rosario homered to center (414 feet), d'Arnaud scored.0–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 2Albies homered to right (412 feet).0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Harris II hit sacrifice fly to center, Arcia scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Olson homered to left center (424 feet), Acuña Jr. scored, Albies scored and Riley scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Fair odds
- ATL -131
- COL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.6 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +91 Elo | ATL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–24 | Road vs home | 22–157th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–2 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.