Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting3-4
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens grounded out to second, Stott scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Olson homered to right (438 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Albies grounded out to second, Rosario scored, Acuña Jr. to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 7Acuña Jr. singled to center, Arcia scored, Rosario to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Riley homered to left (409 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Castellanos singled to right, Marsh scored, Schwarber to second.0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +4 Elo | ATL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–11 | Road vs home | 19–113rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.