Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Realmuto scored.5–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 10Ozuna homered to left center (406 feet), Riley scored.5–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 10Harris II scored on error and Acuña Jr. scored on error, Riley safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Schwarber.3–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 10Harris II singled to left, Hilliard scored.1–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 45%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- ATL +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–11 | Road vs home | 19–125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.