Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Randal GrichukBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake BirdPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fraley homered to right (359 feet), De La Cruz scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Friedl singled to center, Benson scored, Maile to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Maile singled to center, Stephenson scored and Votto scored, Benson to second.3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Grichuk homered to left center (400 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Montero homered to left (373 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Doyle homered to right (349 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 60%
- Fair odds
- CIN -125
- COL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +17 | COL: Jake Bird (no track record yet) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +69 Elo | CIN 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–28 | Road vs home | 19–1820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–3 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.