Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah DavisPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones doubled to right, Profar scored.6–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 8Alfaro homered to center (398 feet), Jones scored and Díaz scored.5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Benson homered to center (403 feet).2–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 5Fraley scored on pickoff error by pitcher Lambert.2–7
- 5Fraley scored on pickoff error by pitcher Lambert.2–7
- 5Fraley doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Castro homered to right center (388 feet).2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3Steer doubled to right, Fraley scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3De La Cruz homered to left (350 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Friedl homered to right center (382 feet), Benson scored and Casali scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Jones homered to right (415 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Fair odds
- CIN -121
- COL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −9 | COL: Noah Davis: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +42 Elo | CIN 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–27 | Road vs home | 18–1820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–2 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.