Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benson homered to center (419 feet).7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 9Fraley homered to right (368 feet).7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Ozuna homered to right (351 feet).7–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 4Steer homered to left (413 feet), De La Cruz scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Olson homered to center (407 feet), Riley scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 26–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Riley doubled to left, Albies scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3McLain homered to center (399 feet), Friedl scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Ozuna singled to right, Olson scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 44%
- Fair odds
- CIN -101
- ATL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.2 – 5.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −19 | ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +39 Elo | ATL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–12 | Road vs home | 21–1817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 3–1 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.