Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Donovan SolanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Vázquez singled to right, Castro scored, Vázquez thrown out at second.6–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 10Castro singled to right, Lewis scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10Lewis single to left, Correa scored, Lewis to second.4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 8Lewis scored on error, Castro safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Maton, Castro safe at second on error, Jeffers safe at third on error.3–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Carpenter singled to right, McKinstry scored, Carpenter to second.2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3McKinstry doubled to right, Rogers scored and Vierling scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Solano homered to left center (420 feet), Vázquez scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -106
- MIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +11 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +6 Elo | MIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 18–2024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–4 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.