Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carpenter homered to right (381 feet), Rogers scored and McKinstry scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 7Rogers singled to left, Cabrera scored and Schoop scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5McKinstry doubled to left, Rogers scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Witt Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Pratto scored on throwing error by shortstop Short.4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Garcia homered to left (411 feet), Melendez scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Witt Jr. homered to left center (442 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Fair odds
- DET -125
- KC +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −11 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +59 Elo | DET 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 30th of 309–24 | Road vs home | 15–1826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.