Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gallo homered to center (425 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Correa homered to left center (425 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2McKinstry singled to center, Cabrera scored and Haase scored, Marisnick to second.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Haase singled to center, Ibañez scored, Cabrera to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -105
- MIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −6 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +4 Elo | MIN 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 17th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 17–2026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.