Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Zack ShortBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Blanco doubled to left, Fermin scored.4–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 8Short singled to left, Vierling scored, Haase to second.3–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 8Haase reached on infield single to shortstop, Maton scored, Vierling to second.3–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 8Vierling grounded into fielder's choice to third, Báez scored, Marisnick out at second, Maton to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Báez singled to left, Torkelson scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Beaty grounded into fielder's choice to second, Pratto scored, Perez out at second.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Short homered to left (374 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Báez singled to left, Carpenter scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Short singled to left, Haase scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- KC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +46 Elo | DET 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–25 | Road vs home | 16–1925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.