Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-4
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting1-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Beaty doubled to right, Garcia scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Fair odds
- DET -125
- KC +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 5.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +54 Elo | DET 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 309–25 | Road vs home | 16–1824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.