Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Max KeplerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-2
- Joey WentzPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vierling singled to right, Ibañez scored, Schoop to second, Báez to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Farmer scored on White wild pitch, Kepler to second on wild pitch by White, Castro to third on wild pitch by White.4–0
- 6Farmer scored on White wild pitch, Kepler to second on wild pitch by White, Castro to third on wild pitch by White.4–0
- 2Kepler homered to right center (401 feet), Castro scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Lewis homered to left (404 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Fair odds
- DET -107
- MIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | −7 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 1.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 17–1924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.