Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Julien hit sacrifice fly to left, Gallo scored on error, Taylor safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Rosario, Vázquez to third.2–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 2Acuña Jr. homered to left (361 feet).1–6
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 31–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 2Harris II homered to right (438 feet).1–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Murphy homered to center (445 feet).1–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 1Riley homered to left center (417 feet), Albies scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to right center (406 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Correa scored on error, Buxton safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Arcia.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -125
- MIN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +58 Elo | ATL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 25–153rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.