Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Joey GalloBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Acuña Jr. homered to left center (432 feet), Harris II scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Ozuna homered to right center (408 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4d'Arnaud grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Riley scored, Olson out at second, d'Arnaud safe at second on error by first baseman Kirilloff.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Gallo homered to center (411 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Fair odds
- ATL -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 24–154th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.