Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting1-4
- George SorianoPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olson doubled to right, Riley scored.0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 1Arcia doubled to left, Ozuna scored.0–6
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Ozuna doubled to third, Murphy scored and Olson scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Murphy doubled to left, Riley scored, Olson to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Albies homered to right (359 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to left (417 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- MIA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.9 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −3 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–19 | Road vs home | 28–152nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–7 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.