Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Acuña Jr. homered to left (392 feet), Harris II scored.4–16
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–16
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–14
- 7Sánchez grounded out to shortstop, Berti scored.4–14
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–14
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–14
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–14
- 6Murphy homered to left center (459 feet), Olson scored.3–14
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–14
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–12
- 6Olson singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.3–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 5Rosario grounded out to second, Murphy scored, Ozuna to third.3–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–10
- 5Olson homered to left center (409 feet), Riley scored.3–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 5Riley singled to right, Albies scored.3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 3Murphy hit sacrifice fly to right, Olson scored.3–7
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 3Riley homered to left (412 feet).3–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 3Soler homered to left (410 feet).3–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -117
- MIA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −16 | MIA: Bryan Hoeing: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 27–152nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–6 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.