St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman hit sacrifice fly to center, Carlson scored.2–15
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–15
- 9Nootbaar singled to right, DeJong scored, Donovan to second, Carlson to third.1–15
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–15
- 8De La Cruz singled to center, Berti scored, Stallings to second.0–15
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–15
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–14
- 8Berti doubled to left, Myers scored and Wendle scored.0–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–12
- 8Fortes grounded out to third, Segura scored.0–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–11
- 7Sánchez singled to left, Soler scored.0–11
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–11
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 30–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 7Soler doubled to center, Arraez scored and Myers scored.0–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 7Myers singled to right, Wendle scored.0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Cooper singled to left, De La Cruz scored and Soler scored, Sánchez to second.0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 4De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Fortes scored on fielding error by pitcher Romero, Soler to second, Arraez to third.0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 60%
- Fair odds
- MIA -127
- STL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | +3 | STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +70 Elo | MIA 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 26–164th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.