Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Darick HallBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shawn ArmstrongPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Turner singled to right, Stubbs scored, Pache to second.3–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 11Schwarber singled to right, Sosa scored, Stubbs to second.2–1
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Paredes homered to left center (387 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Hall homered to right center (398 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Fair odds
- TB -120
- PHI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +46 Elo | TB 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 3024–23 | Road vs home | 34–121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–0 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.