Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marsh singled to right, Stott scored and Bohm scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Castellanos homered to center (437 feet).6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Stott singled to center, Realmuto scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Turner homered to left (364 feet).4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Raley homered to right (346 feet).3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Realmuto singled to center, Harper scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 2Mejía singled to right, Walls scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Hall singled to right, Stott scored, Bohm to second.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Bohm singled to center, Realmuto scored, Stott to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1B. Lowe doubled to shortstop, Arozarena scored and Díaz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -120
- PHI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 5.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | 0 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +42 Elo | TB 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 14th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 34–111st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.