Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Franco homered to left center (384 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Harper singled to center, Schwarber scored.3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Stott singled to right, Harper scored, Realmuto to second.2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Bohm doubled to center, Stott scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Fair odds
- TB -126
- PHI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 5.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +13 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +87 Elo | TB 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 34–101st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.